Excess mortality in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria estimated by persistent risk and time-series analysis

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico, leaving widespread destruction in its path. The official death count for Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria was 64 excess deaths, but that controversial death toll has been debated by a number of academic and independent researcher journalists. With the loss of electrical power and telecommunication systems for much of the island, it was unclear how many deaths in Puerto Rico were an immediate result of Hurricane Maria's destruction as opposed to the access to care conditions that prolonged. Santos-Burgoa et al. applied a time-series analysis of the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics data to estimate the death count over time. To consider how many people died as opposed to emigrated away from Puerto Rico, two counterfactual assumptions were used, a Census-based scenario and a Displacement-based scenario for expected population change. Under the Census scenario and the Displacement scenario, the estimated death counts in Puerto Rico was approximately 1200 deaths and 3000 deaths, respectively, where the Displacement scenario was acclaimed as the preferred model. Due to copy-right issues, the article and supplementary materials should be accessed at the source website. Please use the following reference citation and doi to redirect there: Santos-Burgoa C, Sandberg J, Suárez E, Goldman-Hawes A, Zeger S, Garcia-Meza A, Pérez CM, Estrada-Merly N, Colón-Ramos U, Nazario CM, Andrade E. Differential and persistent risk of excess mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico: a time-series analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2018 Nov 1;2(11):e478-88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30209-22017年9月20日，飓风玛丽亚（Hurricane Maria）登陆波多黎各，所经之处造成大范围破坏。飓风玛丽亚过后，波多黎各官方公布的死亡人数为64例超额死亡（excess deaths），但这一颇具争议的死亡统计数据遭到了众多学术研究者与独立记者的质疑。由于该岛大部分地区的电力与通讯系统陷入瘫痪，人们难以明确区分：究竟有多少死亡案例是飓风玛丽亚直接造成的，又有多少是因医疗救治可及性条件恶化所间接引发的。 Santos-Burgoa等人基于波多黎各生命统计数据（Puerto Rico Vital Statistics data）开展时间序列分析（time-series analysis），以估算随时间变化的死亡人数。为区分死亡与移民迁出导致的人口变化，研究采用了两种反事实假设（counterfactual assumptions）：基于人口普查的情景与基于人口迁移的情景，用以预估预期人口变化。在人口普查情景与人口迁移情景下，波多黎各的估算死亡人数分别约为1200例与3000例，其中人口迁移情景被认可为更优模型。 由于版权问题，本文及补充材料需通过原网站获取。请使用以下参考文献引用及DOI链接跳转至原文： Santos-Burgoa C, Sandberg J, Suárez E, Goldman-Hawes A, Zeger S, Garcia-Meza A, Pérez CM, Estrada-Merly N, Colón-Ramos U, Nazario CM, Andrade E. 波多黎各飓风玛丽亚导致的超额死亡风险差异与持续存在：一项时间序列分析. 《柳叶刀·星球健康（The Lancet Planetary Health）》. 2018年11月1日;2(11):e478-88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30209-2