Ecological Impacts of Hurricanes Across the Yucatan Peninsula 1851-2000

This study used computer modeling to study the impacts of hurricanes across the Yucatan Peninsula since 1851. For details on methods and results please see the published paper (Boose, E. R., D. R. Foster, A. Barker Plotkin and B. Hall. 2003. Geographical and historical variation in hurricanes across the Yucatan Peninsula. In Lowland Maya Area: Three Millennia at the Human-Wildland Interface. A. Gomez-Pompa, M. F. Allen, S. Fedick and J. J. Jimenez-Osornio, eds. Haworth Press, New York, NY. In press). The Abstract from the paper is reproduced below. "The ecological impacts of hurricanes across the Yucatan Peninsula over the last 150 years were investigated using a simple meteorological model (HURRECON) developed at Harvard Forest as well as a database of historical hurricane data (HURDAT) maintained by the U. S. National Hurricane Center. All hurricanes over the period 1851-2000 with sustained winds of hurricane force (33 meters/sec) within 300 kilometers of the study region were analyzed (n = 105). Each storm was reconstructed to produce estimates of wind damage on the Fujita scale across the region. Individual reconstructions were then compiled to study cumulative impacts of all 105 storms. "Results showed considerable variation in hurricane activity from year to year, and from decade to decade, while at the half-century scale there was an increase in hurricane intensity since the mid-nineteenth century. Ninety percent of the hurricanes causing F1 damage or higher (on the Fujita scale) occurred in the months of August, September, and October. A strong spatial gradient in hurricane frequency and intensity extended across the region from northeast to southwest, resulting from (1) the greater number of hurricanes to the north, (2) the east to west movement of most hurricanes across the area, and (3) the tendency for most hurricanes to weaken significantly after landfall. For example, during the study period, northeastern parts of the peninsula experienced a minimum of one F3 hurricane, six F2 hurricanes, and thirty F1 hurricanes, while southwestern parts experienced no F2 or F3 damage and fewer than five F1 storms. Though a significant disturbance across much of the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricanes may have shorter-lived and less severe ecological impacts than fire or human land use. The interaction of these factors (e.g., fires following hurricanes), however, may be very significant and deserves further study."本研究采用计算机建模方法，对1851年以来尤卡坦半岛的飓风影响展开研究。有关研究方法与结果的详细内容，请参阅已发表论文：Boose, E. R., D. R. Foster, A. Barker Plotkin 与 B. Hall. 2003. 《尤卡坦半岛飓风的地理与历史变化》，收录于《低地玛雅地区：人类-荒野界面三千年》（Lowland Maya Area: Three Millennia at the Human-Wildland Interface），A. Gomez-Pompa、M. F. Allen、S. Fedick 及 J. J. Jimenez-Osornio 主编，Haworth Press 出版社，纽约州纽约市，待刊。本文转载该论文的摘要如下："本研究借助哈佛森林开发的简易气象模型（HURRECON），以及由美国国家飓风中心（U. S. National Hurricane Center）维护的历史飓风数据库（HURDAT），对过去150年间尤卡坦半岛的飓风生态影响开展了调查。本研究对1851年至2000年间、在研究区域300公里范围内出现持续飓风级风力（33米/秒）的所有飓风进行了分析（共105例）。针对每一场风暴，本研究均完成重建以估算该区域内藤田级数（Fujita scale）下的风灾破坏等级。随后整合各风暴的重建结果，以分析全部105场飓风的累积影响。研究结果显示，飓风活动在年际与年代际尺度上均存在显著差异；而在半个世纪尺度上，自19世纪中期以来，飓风强度呈上升趋势。90%的引发F1级及以上破坏（藤田级数）的飓风均发生于8月、9月与10月。飓风发生频率与强度在区域内呈现出从东北向西南的显著空间梯度，这一现象源于三方面因素：（1）北部飓风数量更多；（2）多数飓风自东向西穿越研究区域；（3）多数飓风在登陆后会出现显著减弱。例如，在本研究时段内，半岛东北部至少经历过1场F3级飓风、6场F2级飓风及30场F1级飓风，而半岛西南部未出现过F2或F3级破坏，且F1级风暴的发生次数不足5场。尽管飓风对尤卡坦半岛大部分区域均造成了显著扰动，但其对生态系统的影响时长可能较火灾或人类土地利用更短、程度更轻。然而，这些干扰因素（如飓风过后的火灾）之间的相互作用可能具有重要研究价值，有待进一步探索。"