Community Citation Models

Human knowledge systems, such as science, law, or invention, accumulate knowledge through citations---a common method for referencing and building upon existing works. The investigation into citation dynamics led to the discovery of numerous patterns and insights into the production, recognition, and formalization of knowledge. However, most of these findings are confined to scientific citations, raising a question about whether, and the extent to which, these citation dynamics are inherent to the ways humans seek, use, and create knowledge. Here, by analyzing extensive records of citations in scientific papers, U.S. court opinions, and patents, we demonstrate that these knowledge systems---despite stark differences in their modi operandi---share universal patterns of formalization. Considering the contrasts in procedures and incentives guiding judges, inventors, and scientists, our findings suggest that the fundamental dynamics of citation may be largely universal across human knowledge systems. We introduce a model that captures the collective dynamics of these knowledge systems, and demonstrate that this model not only gives rise to the patterns of citations we observe but also more accurately predicts the future publication trajectories and provide insights into the mechanisms behind elusive phenomena such as sleeping beauties. Our work offers new perspectives into the fundamental mechanisms that govern collective human knowledge systems and highlights generalizable insights into discovery and innovation across knowledge systems.