Replication data for: IGO Membership, Network Convergence, and Credible Signaling in Militarized Disputes

Existing studies of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and militarized conflict focus on dyadic counts of shared IGO membership. However, dyadic approaches are inconsistent with the basic properties of IGOs. Because IGOs are multilateral organizations, shared membership necessarily involves ties to third parties. This article employs network analytics to develop a novel explanation of how third-party IGO ties reduce militarized conflict. The analysis first examines the \"structural similarity\" of states, defined by the extent to which states share similar patterns of IGO membership with relevant third parties. High levels of structural similarity indicate that states interact with a common set of IGO collaborators. The analysis then shows that micro-level changes in IGO membership effect changes in structural similarity, leading to the macro-level phenomenon of \"network convergence,\" wherein states increasingly collaborate with the same third parties over time. Substantively, convergence results in increased overlap and integration between states' respective local networks of IGO partners. Because network convergence is costly, involving a combination of IGO-based accession, sovereignty, and alignment costs, it is unlikely to be pursued by purely exploitative state types. Consequently, convergence provides cooperative types with a mechanism for signaling a preference for cooperation over conflict. These credible signals in turn establish mutual trust among cooperators and effectively reduce the risk of militarized conflict. Extensive empirical analysis shows that, in fact, network convergence strongly correlates with a decline in militarized dispute initiations. The more that states collaborate with one another's IGO partners, the less likely they are to fight.现有关于政府间国际组织（IGOs）与军事化冲突的研究，多聚焦于双边共属IGOs成员身份的数量统计。然而，双边研究范式与IGOs的基本属性并不相符。由于IGOs属于多边组织，共属成员身份必然涉及与第三方的关联。本文采用网络分析方法，就第三方IGO关联如何降低军事化冲突提出了全新的解释框架。分析首先考察了国家的"结构相似性（structural similarity）"，其定义为国家与相关第三方在IGOs成员身份模式上的相似程度。较高的结构相似性表明，两国共享一套共同的IGO合作伙伴。随后的分析表明，IGOs成员身份的微观层面变化会引发结构相似性的改变，进而催生宏观层面的"网络趋同（network convergence）"现象——即随着时间推移，各国愈发倾向于与相同的第三方开展合作。从实质层面来看，网络趋同会使得各国各自的IGO合作伙伴本地网络的重叠度与整合程度不断提升。由于网络趋同需要付出成本，包括基于IGOs的加入成本、主权成本与协调成本，因此纯粹以剥削为目的的国家类型不太会追求这一过程。因此，网络趋同为合作型国家提供了一种机制，用以传递其偏好合作而非冲突的信号。这些可信的信号进而在合作者之间建立起相互信任，并有效降低了军事化冲突的发生风险。大量的实证分析表明，事实上网络趋同与军事化争端发起率的下降存在显著的相关性。各国与对方的IGO合作伙伴开展的合作越多，双方发生冲突的可能性就越低。