Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes: Replication package and online appendix

Replication package and online appendix for the paper “Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes” by Yao Chen and Felix Ward. The replication package includes a readme-file, Stata codes, data, and output files required to reproduce all figures presented in the main text and Online Appendix. The paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.本复现包与在线附录配套于Yao Chen与Felix Ward合著的论文《固定汇率制度下的产出分化》（Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes）。本复现包包含复现正文与在线附录中全部图表所需的自述文件、Stata代码、数据集与输出文件。 该论文通过实证研究验证了名义汇率制度中性命题的不成立。研究发现，在汇率钉住前通胀率较高的国家中，实施固定汇率制度会导致实际产出损失。具体而言，在汇率钉住前存在1个百分点（percentage point，ppt）的工资通胀差的国家，在实施固定汇率制度十年后，其人均实际GDP水平将降低2%，全要素生产率（Total Factor Productivity, TFP）水平将降低1%。可贸易部门受到的影响较不可贸易部门更为显著，这与可贸易部门更大程度暴露于国际套利活动的特征相符。