Party Realignment and Single-Issue Voters

This paper studies the effect of a single-issue referendum on political party realignment. We consider the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom in the aftermath of a referendum on the British exit from the European Union. We look at the change in positions of Conservative Members of Parliament using a novel dataset tracking their opinions on British membership of the EU and their election outcomes between 2015 and 2022. Our findings show that MPs who resisted switching to a pro-Leave position faced significantly higher electoral losses. We then consider various models of switching, showing that safe seats are strong predictors. These results highlight the sensitivity of political parties to single-issue politics, underscoring how such environments can contribute to broader populist movements in modern democracies., , , # Party Realignment and Single-Issue Voters [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.f7m0cfz6d](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.f7m0cfz6d) ## Description of the data and file structure This set of data and code replicates all tables and figure from ``Party Realignment and Single-Issue Voters''. ### Files and variables #### File: code\_data.zip **Description:**Â \#1 Stata .do file to run results [uk_ele.do]. This loads the xlsx and csv files and generates all tables and figures in the paper. \#2 Hand collected MP position excel sheet [Remainers Spreadsheet Updated (1).xlsx]. This contains the information on MP positions on Brexit (see data section for details). Variables:Â * Remain in 2015: was MP remain in 2015. * Switched?: did they switch. * What are they doing now?: their current occupation. * Status of Seat?: who is in the seat they occupied. * Year Left: if they left, the year they left the seat. \#3 Financial Times dataset on constituency variables [financialTimes*ge2017*dataset.cs...本研究探讨单议题公投对政党重组的影响。本文以英国脱欧公投后的英国保守党为研究对象，通过一套新颖的数据集，追踪2015年至2022年间英国保守党议员的欧盟成员国身份立场变化，以及其选举结果。 研究结果显示，拒绝转向支持脱欧立场的议员，其选举失利的概率显著更高。随后本文针对议员立场转换的多种模型展开分析，结果表明安全席位是立场转换的强有力预测因子。上述研究结果凸显了政党对单议题政治的敏感性，同时揭示了此类政治环境如何助力现代民主社会中更广泛的民粹主义运动的兴起。 # 政党重组与单议题选民 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.f7m0cfz6d ## 数据与文件结构说明 本数据集与代码可复现《政党重组与单议题选民》一文中的全部图表与表格。 ### 文件与变量 #### 文件：code_data.zip **文件说明：** 1. 用于运行结果的Stata .do文件[uk_ele.do]：该文件可加载xlsx与csv格式文件，并生成论文中的全部图表与表格。 2. 手动收集的议员立场数据表[Remainers Spreadsheet Updated (1).xlsx]：包含议员关于英国脱欧(Brexit)的立场相关信息（详细说明参见数据章节）。 变量说明： * 2015年留欧立场：该议员2015年是否支持留欧。 * 是否转换立场：该议员是否调整过自身立场。 * 当前职业：该议员目前的职业状况。 * 席位现状：其所占席位的现任持有者情况。 * 离任年份：若该议员已离任，则为其离任该席位的年份。 3. 英国《金融时报》选区变量数据集[financialTimes*ge2017*dataset.cs...