Predicting mosquito density and distribution in China under climate change

In light of the impending consequences of climate change, there is a strong probability that the geographical distribution of mosquitoes will undergo substantial modification. Consequently, the potential environmental health risks posed by mosquitoes as a harmful invasive species remain uncertain. The present study primarily employs species distribution models to simulate the distribution of mosquitoes in China. However, the majority of extant studies focus on annual changes rather than seasonal or monthly changes. Meteorological parameters are predominantly temperature and precipitation, while other factors, such as humidity and wind speed are neglected. Furthermore, the existing monitoring records primarily focus on the presence or absence of specific mosquito species, neglecting to account for density fluctuations. In this study, we propose to use a random forest model to simulate the monthly density and distribution of mosquitoes in China during the first (2030), middle (2050), late (2070), and last (2090) years of this century. The primary dominant mosquito species involved were Anopheles sinensis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, and Aedes albopictus, and four climate change scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, were simulated. The findings of this study serve to enhance our comprehension of the ecological principles governing mosquito populations, thereby providing a scientific foundation for informed decision-making within the public health sector. This knowledge facilitates a strategic transition from a reactive response to a proactive approach, focusing on prevention and control. This shift is of paramount importance in ensuring the security of public health.