Predictive tools for white syndromes in Northern Australia: targeting monitoring and informing management (MTSRF 2.5i.3, JCU, Uni Melbourne)

Climate change has emerged as the single greatest threat to coral reefs. The climate change threat will take many forms and includes projections that there will be higher abundances of coral diseases. Links have already been made between high temperatures and outbreaks of the disease ‘white syndrome’ in the Indo-Pacific but little is known about the disease due, in part, to not knowing where outbreaks will occur. We present results of a regression model that suggests the most severe outbreaks of white syndrome observed on the Great Barrier Reef, in late 2002, only occurred at sites that experienced high rates of temperature increase during summer months, rates not seen again in the GBR until 2009. We have produced an image for each summer since and including 2002 that colour-grades and maps white syndrome outbreak likelihood for northern Australia as high or low. The images are based on retrospective calculations of summer rates of temperature increase from high-resolution remotely sensed temperature data. The interactive tool produced from the images is the first like it for coral disease and forms the early warning system within a new coral disease outbreak response plan. The tool will help to target research and monitoring that can improve our understanding of white syndrome outbreaks and determine whether actions can be taken by managers to reduce the susceptibility of corals to such diseases (Maynard et al. in review).

The data, presented as images, have no units. Pixels have been coloured red (~1 km resolution) that experienced heating rates at least as great as was experienced at sites where outbreaks of white syndromes occurred in the southern GBR late in 2002.

This dataset was developed as part of the MTSRF program.

Cite this dataset: Maynard J., Willis B. (2009) Predicting outbreaks of the coral disease white syndrome in northern Australia, eAtlas, https://eatlas.org.au/data/uuid/eaece897-3e9a-47ea-94cb-ee94195dac98

气候变化已成为珊瑚礁面临的头号威胁。该威胁将以多种形式显现，其中包括预测显示珊瑚疾病的暴发频次将有所升高。目前已有研究证实，印度洋-太平洋海域的高温与珊瑚“白色综合征（white syndrome）”暴发存在关联，但由于尚未明确该疾病的暴发点位，学界对其认知仍较为有限。本研究展示了一项回归模型的分析结果：2002年末大堡礁（Great Barrier Reef, GBR）观测到的最严重白色综合征暴发，仅发生在夏季升温速率较高的海域，而该升温速率直至2009年才再次在大堡礁海域出现。本研究针对2002年及之后的每个夏季生成了一幅图像，对澳大利亚北部海域的白色综合征暴发风险进行高低分级与空间制图。上述图像基于高分辨率遥感温度数据（high-resolution remotely sensed temperature data）回溯计算得到的夏季升温速率生成。基于这些图像开发的交互式工具是全球首款针对珊瑚疾病的同类工具，可作为新型珊瑚疾病暴发应对方案中的早期预警系统。该工具可辅助锁定研究与监测方向，帮助学界深化对白色综合征暴发规律的认知，并助力管理者评估是否可采取措施降低珊瑚对该类疾病的易感性（梅纳德等，待刊）。

本数据集以图像形式呈现，无量化单位。以2002年末大堡礁南部白色综合征暴发海域的升温速率为参照阈值，升温速率不低于该阈值的像素将被标记为红色（空间分辨率约1公里）。

本数据集是MTSRF计划的研究成果之一。

数据集引用格式：梅纳德J.、威利斯B.（2009）《澳大利亚北部珊瑚疾病白色综合征暴发预测》，eAtlas，https://eatlas.org.au/data/uuid/eaece897-3e9a-47ea-94cb-ee94195dac98