Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic-Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic-Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea), Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera), and Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Understanding how and where these species’ distributions shift in response to environmental drivers is critical to inform conservation planning in the Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012-2021) and projected future (2050) suitable climatic and land use/land cover conditions as components of stationary nonbreeding distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used in an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CCSM-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) to predict distributions in response to varying climatic and land use/lan..., Bird Occurrence Data 
We obtained current (2012-2021) bird occurrence data containing only Neotropical presence records from eBird (accessed in January 2023; Sullivan et al. 2009) and supplemented with species-specific georeferenced occurrence datasets to bolster presence record sample sizes and the spatial representation of records. 2012-2021 was identified as the ‘current’ timeframe to capitalize on increased user engagement with eBird and align with prior research (Hightower et al. 2023). Date ranges for the stationary nonbreeding period were defined using expert input (N. Bayly, E. Cohen, I. Davidson, A. González, J. Hightower, J. L. Larkin, E. Montenegro, D. Raybuck, A. Roth, C. Rushing, C. Stanley, R. L. M. Stewart, and S. Wilson personal communication) to assess frequency distributions of daily presence records in the current timeframe. Experts emphasized date selection 2 weeks before or after most birds initiated or completed migration through the Neotropical flyway to minimize ..., , # Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic-Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.g1jwstr0h](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.g1jwstr0h)

## Description of the data and file structure

The following data are available for use: covariates, spatial extents, presence record CSVs, and Honduras focal areas in the 'Processes to Identify Near-term Conservation Priority Areas' methods section. Covariates are available for the current (2012-2021) and future (2050) time periods. The current timeframe for Brodie et al. 2024 was designated as 2012-2021 to align with prior research and capitalize on increased user engagement with eBird. The 2050 data is split into SSP2-RCP4.5 (best-case) and SSP5-RCP8.5 (worst-case) climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The best-case represents a future where climate-smart practices increase and non-renewable resource use declines. In contrast, the worst-case represents ...