Data from: Current and projected global distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi, one of the world’s worst plant pathogens

Globally, Phytophthora cinnamomi is listed as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species and active management is required to reduce impact and prevent spread in both horticulture and natural ecosystems. Conversely, there are regions thought to be suitable for the pathogen where no disease is observed. We developed a CLIMEX model for the global distribution of P. cinnamomi based on the pathogen's response to temperature and moisture and by incorporating extensive empirical evidence on the presence and absence of the pathogen. The CLIMEX model captured areas of climatic suitability where P. cinnamomi occurs that is congruent with all available records. The model was validated by the collection of soil samples from asymptomatic vegetation in areas projected to be suitable by the model for which there were few records. DNA was extracted and the presence or absence of P. cinnamomi determined by high throughput sequencing (HTS). While not detected using traditional isolation methods, HTS detected P. cinnamomi at higher elevations in eastern Australia and central Tasmania as projected by the CLIMEX model. Further support for the CLIMEX model was obtained by using the large dataset from southwest Australia where the proportion of positive records in an area is related to the Ecoclimatic Index value for the same area. We provide for the first time a comprehensive global map of the current P. cinnamomi distribution, an improved CLIMEX model of the distribution, and a projection to 2080 of the distribution with predicted climate change. This information provides the basis for more detailed regional scale modelling and supports risk assessment for governments to plan management of this important soil-borne plant pathogen.,WORLDPhytophthora cinnamomi records used in model (ex-Australia)QLDPhytophthora cinnamomi records used in model from Queensland, AustraliaVICPhytophthora cinnamomi records used in model from Victoria, AustraliaTASPhytophthora cinnamomi records used in model from Tasmania, AustraliaNSWNew South Wales, AustraliaAUSTRALIA ADDPdata used from Australian Plant Pest Database,

全球范围内，肉桂疫霉（Phytophthora cinnamomi）被列为全球100种最具危害性的外来入侵物种之一，在园艺产业与自然生态系统中均需开展主动防控，以降低其危害并阻止其扩散。与之相对的是，部分区域经评估被认为适宜该病原菌生存，但目前尚未观测到病害发生。
本研究基于该病原菌对温度与湿度的响应，并整合了大量关于病原菌检出与未检出的实证数据，构建了用于预测肉桂疫霉全球分布的CLIMEX模型。该CLIMEX模型所识别的肉桂疫霉气候适宜生存区域，与所有可获取的观测记录完全吻合。
为验证模型准确性，本研究在模型预测为适宜但相关记录稀缺的区域，采集了无症状植被的土壤样本：提取土壤DNA后，通过高通量测序（HTS）技术检测肉桂疫霉的存在与否。尽管传统分离方法未检出该病原菌，但高通量测序技术在CLIMEX模型预测的澳大利亚东部高海拔区域与塔斯马尼亚中部地区成功检测到肉桂疫霉。
进一步验证研究则依托澳大利亚西南部的大型数据集开展：区域内阳性检出记录占比与该区域的气候生态指数（Ecoclimatic Index）呈显著相关，为CLIMEX模型提供了额外支撑。
本研究首次构建了覆盖全球的肉桂疫霉当前分布高清地图、优化后的分布预测CLIMEX模型，以及基于未来气候变化情景预测的2080年分布投影结果。上述研究成果可为更精细的区域尺度建模提供基础，并为政府开展该重要土传植物病原菌的防控规划提供风险评估支撑。
WORLD：模型所用肉桂疫霉观测记录（不含澳大利亚数据）
昆士兰州（QLD）：模型所用澳大利亚昆士兰州肉桂疫霉观测记录
维多利亚州（VIC）：模型所用澳大利亚维多利亚州肉桂疫霉观测记录
塔斯马尼亚州（TAS）：模型所用澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚州肉桂疫霉观测记录
新南威尔士州（NSW）：澳大利亚新南威尔士州
澳大利亚补充数据（AUSTRALIA ADD）：数据源自澳大利亚植物病虫害数据库