Predicting fitness in future climate: Insights from temporally replicated field experiments in Arabidopsis thaliana

Organisms are already facing climate change driven by recent anthropogenic activities. In an attempt to understand and mitigate the negative effects of climate change on wild and farmed species, recent research focused on predicting the fitness of organisms or populations in future climates. The accuracy of these predictions is, however, seldom tested. To test such predictions, we grew 800 genetic families of the annual selfing plant Arabidopsis thaliana in the same field site for two consecutive years with contrasted climates. Despite observing, in both years, a clear association between fitness and climatic distance between our field site and the climate of origin of the genetic families, the diverse set of methods we used failed to accurately predict fitness from a year to another. This impossibility resulted from different contributions of climatic factors in climate adaptation every year, which impeded the definition of a meaningful climatic descriptor across years. Our results als..., Plant material The plant material we used has already been described in a previous study (Brachi et al. 2013) but we provide a short description of this material hereafter. In 2009, we collected 800 individuals of the annual plant species A. thaliana from 49 natural populations in four regions of France with different climatic regimes (Brittany: oceanic climate - 11 populations; Burgundy: continental climate - 11 populations; Languedoc: Mediterranean climate - 16 populations; North of France: semi-continental climate, 11 populations; Table S1- Figure S1 of the associated publication). We collected an average of 16 plants per population (mean=16.3 ±5.6). We collected these plants before they initiated flowering, and grew them in isolation with aratubes (https://www.arasystem.com/asn003-aratubes-360) in the greenhouse (16h photoperiod, 20°C) to prevent cross-pollination and harvest seeds. The seeds we obtained from each individual plant therefore constitute a genetic family. Because A. th..., , # Data from: Predicting fitness in future climate: Insights from temporally replicated field experiments in Arabidopsis thaliana [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wh70rxww8](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wh70rxww8) ## Description of the data and file structure ### Files and variables #### File: Ecological\_variables\_CG\_Popfr\_2025-03-25.txt **Description:** Climate data for the study populations. The climate data extracted from worldclim2.1 have been blanked in the file for license reasons but can be downloaded with the archived script 'get-popfr-bioWC2-compute-CG-bioclim.R'. Data for the common garden (years 2011 and 2012) are not blanked as they were not extracted from worldclim 2.1. The units of variables are similar to one used by the worldclim project: [https://www.worldclim.org/data/bioclim.html](https://www.worldclim.org/data/bioclim.html) ##### Variables Pop: Population name. These correspond to abbreviations of the closest locality's name. See the following table. | Pop ...,当前，生物已面临由近代人类活动驱动的气候变化。为探究并缓解气候变化对野生物种与养殖物种的负面影响，近期研究聚焦于预测生物或种群在未来气候下的适合度。然而，此类预测的准确性却极少得到验证。为验证此类预测，我们在气候差异显著的同一块同质园试验田，连续两年种植了一年生自交植物拟南芥（Arabidopsis thaliana）的800个遗传家系。尽管两年间均观察到，适合度与试验田气候和遗传家系来源地气候之间的气候距离存在显著关联，但我们采用的多种方法均无法准确实现年份间的适合度预测。这种预测失效的原因在于，每年气候因子对气候适应的贡献存在差异，这阻碍了跨年份有效气候描述指标的构建。本研究结果亦…… 植物材料 本研究使用的植物材料已在既往研究（Brachi等，2013）中被报道，但下文仍会对该材料进行简要说明。2009年，我们从法国4个不同气候类型区域的49个自然种群中采集了一年生植物拟南芥的800个个体：布列塔尼（海洋性气候，11个种群）、勃艮第（大陆性气候，11个种群）、朗格多克（地中海气候，16个种群）以及法国北部（半大陆性气候，11个种群；详见相关论文的表S1与图S1）。每个种群平均采集16株植物（平均值±标准差：16.3±5.6）。我们在植株始花前完成采集，并将单株置于aratubes（链接：https://www.arasystem.com/asn003-aratubes-360）中于温室内隔离培养（光照周期16小时，温度20℃），以避免异花授粉并收获种子。由此，从单株收获的种子即构成一个遗传家系。因拟南芥…… # 数据来源：预测未来气候下的适合度：基于拟南芥时间重复田间试验的研究启示 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wh70rxww8 ## 数据与文件结构说明 ### 文件与变量 #### 文件：Ecological_variables_CG_Popfr_2025-03-25.txt **说明：** 本研究种群的气候数据。从worldclim2.1提取的气候数据因授权许可原因已在文件中做脱敏处理，但可通过归档脚本`get-popfr-bioWC2-compute-CG-bioclim.R`下载。2011年与2012年的同质园试验数据未做脱敏处理，因其并非从worldclim 2.1中提取。变量单位与worldclim项目采用的单位一致：[https://www.worldclim.org/data/bioclim.html](https://www.worldclim.org/data/bioclim.html) ##### 变量 Pop：种群名称，对应采集地最近城镇名称的缩写，详见下表。 | Pop ...,