Data from: Climate and anthropogenic factors determine site occupancy in Scotland's Northern-range badger population: implications of context-dependent responses under environmental change

Aim: In the light of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC), populations are exposed to ever-greater bioclimatic stress at the edge of a species’ historic range. The distribution dynamics of European badgers (Meles meles) at their southern edge are linked tightly to climatic variability. We contribute critical data on how climatic context and local factors determine site occupancy in a northern-range population. Location: Eleven study areas (averaging ~21.3 km2) spread over ~50,000 km2 in Northern Scotland. Methods: While accounting for heterogeneous detectability, we applied single-season occupancy models to broad-scale camera-trapping data (168 stations) to evaluate how Autumn–Winter weather conditions interact with land-cover type (including agricultural land) and human disturbance to determine badger occupancy. Results: Mean minimum daily winter temperature and elevation influenced inter-site occupancy. When clustering study areas into two distinct topo-climatic types, badger occupancy was associated with agriculture in areas with lower mean minimum winter temperatures (<0.3°C) at higher elevation (>246 m). In areas with higher mean minimum winter temperature (>1.2°C) at lower elevation (<133 m), badgers selected sites further away from human infrastructures (settlements and main roads). Climatic factors and human disturbance interact in intricate, context-dependent patterns to determine badger site occupancy. Main Conclusions: The UKCP09 Medium Emissions Scenario projects a winter mean minimum temperature increase of between 1 and 3°C (central estimate) for Northern Scotland by the 2050s. Although warmer weather should benefit badger occupancy, this may be counteracted by up to a predicted 5% human population increase in the Scottish highlands, by 2037, which is likely to disturb badgers. We show that even in instances where species’ regional responses to climate change are positive, these effects can be neutralized by other anthropogenic pressures. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence advocating that interactive effects should be taken into account when planning conservation management.研究目标： 在人为快速环境变化（human-induced rapid environmental change, HIREC）的背景下，物种历史分布范围边缘的种群正承受愈发强烈的生物气候胁迫。欧洲獾（Meles meles）的南部分布边缘的分布动态与气候变异性紧密关联。本研究旨在提供关键数据，阐明气候背景与局地因子如何调控北部分布种群的位点占用（site occupancy）情况。 研究区域： 11个研究样区（单个样区平均面积约21.3 km²）分布在苏格兰北部约50,000 km²的范围内。 研究方法： 本研究在考虑检测概率异质性的前提下，将单季位点占用模型（single-season occupancy models）应用于大尺度红外相机诱捕（camera-trapping）数据（共168个监测站点），以评估秋冬季节的气候条件如何与土地覆盖类型（包括农业用地）及人为干扰共同作用，决定欧洲獾的位点占用情况。 研究结果： 冬季日均最低气温与海拔显著影响了样点间的位点占用情况。当将研究样区划分为两类截然不同的地形气候类型时，在海拔较高（>246 m）且冬季平均最低气温较低（<0.3℃）的区域，欧洲獾的位点占用与农业用地呈显著正相关；而在海拔较低（<133 m）且冬季平均最低气温较高（>1.2℃）的区域，欧洲獾则倾向于选择远离人类基础设施（定居点与主干道）的生境。气候因子与人为干扰通过复杂的、依赖于环境背景的交互模式共同决定欧洲獾的位点占用情况。 主要结论： 英国气候计划2009（UKCP09）中等排放情景预测，到21世纪50年代，苏格兰北部的冬季平均最低气温将升高1~3℃（中位预估）。尽管气候变暖可能对欧洲獾的位点占用产生积极影响，但到2037年苏格兰高地的人口预计将增长最高达5%，这可能会对獾类造成干扰，从而抵消气候变暖的益处。本研究表明，即便物种对气候变化的区域响应为正向，这类积极效应仍可能被其他人为压力所抵消。我们的研究结果进一步充实了日益增多的相关证据体系，即开展保护管理规划时需充分考虑交互效应的影响。