城市新增常住人口预测模型

通过国民经济和社会发展统计公报、经济普查数据等统计城市历年人口数据，运用SPSS软件进行数据拟合度分析，得出符合变化规律的人口曲线。模型建立基于21世纪以来贵阳市人口自然增长率呈现的'U字型'变化趋势，设计预测函数，回归模型的拟合优度较高。同时考虑生育意愿等主观因素影响，结合人口自然增长率的波动性，采用更大群体数量的统计值提高预测精确度，使用保守估计法提高预测可信度。此外，还建立了就业人员与GDP之间的线性模型以及Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型，综合预测经济带动就业人员数量的增长。

Urban annual population data was collected via statistical resources including national economic and social development statistical bulletins and economic census data. SPSS software was used to conduct data goodness-of-fit analysis, and a population curve consistent with the underlying changing pattern was derived. The model was established based on the 'U-shaped' trend of Guiyang's natural population growth rate since the 21st century, and a prediction function was designed, with the regression model exhibiting a relatively high goodness-of-fit. Meanwhile, subjective factors such as fertility willingness were taken into account. Combined with the volatility of the natural population growth rate, statistical values from larger population cohorts were adopted to improve prediction accuracy, and a conservative estimation method was employed to enhance prediction reliability. In addition, a linear model between employed persons and GDP as well as a Cobb-Douglas production function model were established to comprehensively predict the growth in the number of employed persons driven by economic development.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是一个城市新增常住人口预测模型，基于公开收集的历史数据（规模为60K）构建，采用SPSS软件进行数据拟合，并综合考虑人口自然增长趋势、经济因素（如GDP与就业关系）以及Cobb-Douglas生产函数等方法。模型主要用于支持城市发展规划、公共服务设施配置、教育资源分配和住房政策制定等治理决策，具有较高的拟合优度和预测可信度。