Global rice market outlook 2020-2031: A stochastic analysis

The data contain the results from the stochastic simulation of the Arkansas Global Rice Model (AGRM). Rice farming is a risky business, as uncertainty is always present in various stages of production and marketing activities. The risk and uncertainties may arise from both supply and demand-side factors such as weather, pests and diseases, prices, government policies, and global markets. The rice yield also varies among and within countries due to soil quality and production inputs used. Therefore, to capture these uncertainties and heterogeneities, we iterate the rice yield equation 500 times, estimated from a fixed effect regression (see our paper for details). Although we have iterated the yield equation 500 times, 100 of which are randomly selected and integrated with the Arkansas Global Rice Model (AGRM) to foresee the impacts on various outcome variables such as rice price, consumption, stocks, and trade worldwide.