Median monthly precipitation (mm) for Near Future (2046-2065)

Model Run: Near future (2046 - 2065) (Near future (2046 - 2065)). The Self-Organizing Map Downscaling (SOMD) was developed at the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG)[1], University of Cape Town. This is a leading empirical downscaled technique and provides meteorological station level response to global climate change forcing (See Hewitson and Crane (2006) for methodological details and Wilby et al. (2004) for a review of this and other statistical downscaling methodologies). Downscaling of a General Circulation Model (GCM) is accomplished by deriving the normative local response from the atmospheric state on a given day, as defined from historical observed data. [1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/模型运行时段：近期未来（2046-2065年）（近期未来（2046-2065年））。自组织映射降尺度（Self-Organizing Map Downscaling, SOMD）由开普敦大学气候系统分析小组（Climate Systems Analysis Group, CSAG）[1]开发。该方法属于主流的经验式降尺度技术，可针对全球气候变化强迫给出气象站点尺度的响应结果。具体方法细节可参阅Hewitson与Crane（2006）的研究，关于该方法及其他统计降尺度技术的综述可参考Wilby等人（2004）的成果。通用环流模式（General Circulation Model, GCM）的降尺度过程，通过基于历史观测数据定义的当日大气状态，推导得到典型局地响应特征来实现。[1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/