Food demand in Australia: Trends and issues 2018

Overview \r\n\r\n The report presents updated estimates of household food expenditure trends and examines further issues relating to Australia's household food expenditure. The analysis builds on a June 2017 ABARES report that examined recent trends in food demand in Australia and a range of food security issues. \r\n\r\n Key Issues \r\n\r\n Between 2009-10 and 2016-17, the key drivers of Australia's household food demand growth were, in order of importance, population growth, changes in tastes and preferences (including lifestyle choices), lower real food prices and real income growth. While population growth is important, increasing the number of people seeking to meet their energy and nutrition requirements, there has also been a broadly-based shift toward spending on meals out and fast foods, with the share of meals out and fast foods in household food expenditure in Australia increasing from 31 per cent in 2009-10 to 34 per cent in 2015-16. This increases food expenditure per person, all else constant. \r\n\r\n Domestic household consumption is still the most important market for food producers (based on value), but food exports have recovered strongly in recent years, from $25 billion in 2009-10 to $39 billion in 2016-17 (in 2015-16 prices); the share of exports in Australia's indicative food production increased from a recent low of 25 per cent in 2009-10 to 33 per cent in 2016-17. \r\n\r\n Two key questions posed in the report relate to food security across population sub-groups and economic opportunities for farmers and other food product and service providers. • Food security-based on average outcomes in population sub-groups in 2015-16 using HES data, the Australian Government's transfer system is important in ensuring a high level of food security across households in Australia; some households, such as those highly reliant on family support payments, may require complementary support, for example, from non-government organisations. \r\n\r\n\r\n• Economic opportunities in the domestic food supply chain-future food demand growth in Australia will be underpinned by population and income growth. For people living in higher income and/or net worth households, there is a demonstrated willingness to pay a premium for quality attributes of food products and services, including convenience factors. Food labelling is a key approach to inform consumers about quality attributes that may earn a price premium. \r\n\r\n A key challenge in the long-term trend toward increased demand for meals out and fast foods is to ensure people have information about food attributes such as nutrition content. Reliable and well understood food product and service labelling may enhance nutrition security in Australia, and allow consumers to make food choices that are more closely aligned with their tastes and preferences (including in relation to nutrition and health), and wider circumstances, as well as contributing to reducing food waste.

概述

本报告更新了家庭食品支出趋势的估算数据，并深入探讨了与澳大利亚家庭食品支出相关的多项议题。本分析基于2017年6月澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）发布的报告，该报告此前针对澳大利亚近期食品需求趋势及一系列粮食安全议题展开了研究。

核心议题

2009-10财年至2016-17财年期间，推动澳大利亚家庭食品需求增长的核心驱动因素按重要性排序依次为：人口增长、口味与偏好变迁（涵盖生活方式选择）、实际食品价格下行以及实际收入增长。尽管人口增长是扩大满足能量与营养需求的民众规模的重要因素，但澳大利亚家庭在外出就餐与快餐上的支出占比已出现全面提升：该占比从2009-10财年的31%升至2015-16财年的34%，在其他条件不变的情况下，这将推高人均食品支出。

国内家庭消费仍是食品生产商按价值计算的核心市场，但近年来食品出口强劲复苏：以2015-16财年不变价计算，出口额从2009-10财年的250亿澳元升至2016-17财年的390亿澳元；澳大利亚食品出口占指示性食品生产总值的比例也从2009-10财年的25%（近期低点）升至2016-17财年的33%。

本报告聚焦两大核心议题：一是不同人口细分群体的粮食安全问题，二是农民及其他食品生产与服务提供商的经济发展机遇。
• 粮食安全：基于2015-16财年家庭支出调查（Household Expenditure Survey, HES）的人口细分群体平均结果，澳大利亚政府的转移支付体系对保障全国家庭的高粮食安全水平发挥了关键作用；部分高度依赖家庭支持津贴的家庭，可能需要非政府组织等机构提供补充性支持。
• 国内食品供应链的经济机遇：澳大利亚未来的食品需求增长将以人口增长与收入增长为核心支撑。对于高收入及/或高净资产家庭而言，市场已验证其愿意为食品产品与服务的品质属性（涵盖便利性因素）支付溢价。食品标签是向消费者传递可带来价格溢价的品质属性信息的关键手段。

长期来看，随着外出就餐与快餐需求持续增长，面临的一项核心挑战是确保民众能够获取食品营养成分等相关属性信息。可靠且易于理解的食品与服务标签，可助力提升澳大利亚的营养安全水平，帮助消费者做出更贴合自身口味偏好（包括营养与健康相关选择）及实际情况的食品选择，同时也有助于减少食品浪费。