Australian crop report: June 2015 No.174

The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis. \r\n\r\n\r\n 2015-16 winter crop production • Seasonal conditions have been generally favourable for the start of the 2015-16 winter cropping season. Autumn rainfall was average to above average in many cropping regions. This rainfall increased upper layer soil moisture levels and improved conditions for the planting of winter crops. \r\n• The latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 May 2015, suggests there will be around average winter rainfall in the cropping regions of Victoria and South Australia and above average rainfall in the cropping regions of Western Australia. However, it is likely there will be below average winter rainfall in the cropping regions of southern Queensland and most of New South Wales. \r\n• Beyond the three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), there is a risk of below average spring rainfall in eastern Australia (including South Australia). According to the Bureau of Meteorology (ENSO Wrap-Up, issued 26 May 2015), El Nino in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen, which increases the likelihood that rainfall in eastern Australia will be below average. However, the impact on crop yields from an El Nino event is not uniform and is difficult to predict because the timing of any rainfall is also significant. An El Nino event typically has less impact on rainfall in Western Australia than in eastern Australia. \r\n• The total area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent in 2015-16 to 22.9 million hectares, largely because of an expected increase in the area planted to barley and pulses. \r\n• Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent to 38.7 million tonnes, which reflects the forecast increase in planted area. For the major crops: wheat production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 23.6 million tonnes; barley production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 8.2 million tonnes; and canola production is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 3 million tonnes. Among other crops, production of oats and pulses is forecast to increase because of expected increases in planted area. \r\n 2014-15 summer crop production • Total summer crop production is estimated to have declined by 4 per cent in 2014-15 to 3.8 million tonnes, driven by falls in production of cotton and rice. However, production of grain sorghum increased. \r\n

本报告为季度报告，将对主要大田作物的生产前景开展持续定期评估，预测作物种植面积、单产及总产量，并逐州总结季节气候状况。

2015-2016年度冬季作物生产
• 2015-2016年度冬播季开局整体气候条件利好。多数种植区的秋季降雨量处于平均至偏高水平，此类降雨提升了表层土壤墒情，改善了冬播作物的种植条件。
• 澳大利亚气象局（Bureau of Meteorology）于2015年5月28日发布的最新三个月降雨展望（2015年6月至8月）显示，维多利亚州与南澳大利亚州的种植区冬季降雨量将接近平均水平，西澳大利亚州种植区则将偏多；但昆士兰州南部及新南威尔士州大部的种植区冬季降雨量大概率低于平均水平。
• 超出上述三个月降雨展望（2015年6月至8月）的时段后，澳大利亚东部（含南澳大利亚州）存在春季降雨量低于平均水平的风险。根据澳大利亚气象局2015年5月26日发布的《厄尔尼诺南方涛动总结（ENSO Wrap-Up）》，热带太平洋区域的厄尔尼诺事件（El Nino）持续增强，这提升了澳大利亚东部降雨量低于平均水平的可能性。不过，厄尔尼诺事件对作物单产的影响并不统一，且难以预测，因为降雨时机同样至关重要；通常而言，厄尔尼诺事件对西澳大利亚州降雨的影响弱于东部地区。
• 预计2015-2016年度澳大利亚冬播作物总种植面积将增长约1%，达到2290万公顷，这主要源于大麦与食用豆类作物（pulses）种植面积的预期增长。
• 冬季作物总产量预计将增长约1%，达到3870万吨，这一增幅主要源于种植面积的预期增长。主要作物中，小麦产量预计基本维持不变，为2360万吨；大麦产量预计增长3%，至820万吨；油菜籽（canola）产量预计下降13%，至300万吨。其余作物中，燕麦与食用豆类作物的产量预计将因种植面积扩大而提升。

2014-2015年度夏季作物生产
• 受棉花与水稻产量下滑影响，2014-2015年度夏季作物总产量预计下降4%，至380万吨；不过，粒用高粱产量有所增长。