Data from: The combined effects of temporal autocorrelation and costs of plasticity on the evolution of plasticity

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity is an important source of intraspecific variation, and for many plastic traits the costs or factors limiting plasticity seem cryptic. However, there are several different factors that may constrain the evolution of plasticity, but few models have considered costs and limiting factors simultaneously. Here we use a simulation model to investigate how the optimal level of plasticity in a population depends on a fixed fitness cost for maintaining a potential for plasticity or an incremental fitness cost for producing a plastic response in combination with environmental unpredictability (environmental fluctuation speed) limiting plasticity. Our model identifies two mechanisms that act, almost separately, to constrain the evolution of plasticity: 1) The fitness cost of plasticity scaled by the non-plastic environmental tolerance, and 2) the environmental fluctuation speed scaled by the rate of phenotypic change. That is, the evolution of plasticity is constrained by the high cost of plasticity in combination with high tolerance for environmental variation, or fast environmental changes in combination with slow plastic response. Qualitatively similar results are found when fixed and incremental fitness costs of plasticity are incorporated, although a larger degree of plasticity is selected for with an incremental cost. Our model highlights that it is important to consider direct fitness costs and phenotypic limitations in relation to non-plastic environmental tolerance and environmental fluctuations, respectively, to understand what constrains the evolution of phenotypic plasticity.适应性表型可塑性（adaptive phenotypic plasticity）是种内变异的重要来源，对于多数可塑性性状，制约其可塑性的成本或相关影响因素往往较为隐蔽。不过，尽管已有多种不同因素可制约可塑性的演化，但鲜有模型能够同时兼顾可塑性成本与制约因素两类变量。本研究借助模拟模型，探究种群内可塑性的最优水平如何受两类适合度成本（维持可塑性潜能的固定适合度成本，或是诱导塑性响应的增量适合度成本）以及制约可塑性的环境不可预测性（即环境波动速率）共同调控。本模型揭示了两类几乎独立发挥作用的可塑性演化制约机制：1）以非塑性环境耐受度标准化后的可塑性适合度成本；2）以表型变化速率标准化后的环境波动速率。换言之，当可塑性成本偏高且物种对环境变异的耐受度较强时，或是环境变化速率过快且塑性响应较为迟缓时，可塑性的演化都会受到制约。当同时纳入可塑性的固定与增量适合度成本时，可得到定性一致的结果——尽管在增量成本情境下，种群会被选择出更高水平的可塑性。本研究表明，若要明晰制约表型可塑性演化的核心因素，需分别结合非塑性环境耐受度与环境波动，考量直接适合度成本与表型限制两类变量。