Replication Data for: \"This Rally is not Authorized\": Preventive Repression and Public Opinion in Electoral Autocracies

Does preventive repression dampen or does it bolster mass support for groups that dissent despite obstruction? While a large literature recognizes the importance of preventive repression for authoritarian stability, we know very little about its effects on public opinion. To gain traction on this question I draw on evidence from unusually detailed data on unauthorized and authorized protest from Russia and an original survey experiment. I show that when the authorities engage in preventive repression, such as when they deny protest authorizations, protesters’ ability to generate support is compromised. Preventive repression also conditions the effect of nonviolent demonstrator tactics on public opinion. These effects, however, are contingent on citizen attitudes about the law and the authorities. Findings, which provide one of the first causal tests of the mass opinion effects of preventive repression, expand understanding of the consequences and audiences of repression and have implications for studies of authoritarian resilience.预防性镇压（preventive repression）究竟会削弱，还是会增强民众对那些虽遭阻挠仍持异议群体的支持？尽管已有大量文献证实预防性镇压对威权政权稳定的重要性，但学界对其在公众舆论层面产生的影响却知之甚少。为探究该问题，笔者依托俄罗斯境内未获批准抗议与经批准抗议活动的异常详尽数据集，以及一项原创性调查实验（survey experiment）展开研究。研究结果表明，当当局实施预防性镇压时——例如拒绝批准抗议活动的授权申请——抗议者争取公众支持的能力会受到削弱。预防性镇压还会对非暴力示威策略的公众舆论效应产生调节作用。不过，这类效应的发挥取决于民众对法律与当局的态度。本研究成果为预防性镇压的大众舆论效应提供了首批因果检验之一，拓展了学界对镇压行为的后果与受众群体的认知，并对威权韧性（authoritarian resilience）相关研究具有重要启示意义。