Dataset and scripts from: Predicting temperature mortality and selection in natural Drosophila populations

The study develops and validates a theoretical model to predict thermal mortality under natural conditions, based on measurements of mortality performed in the laboratory at multiple constant temperatures. The theoretical model first fits a thermal tolerance landscape, which describes how survival probability is affected by both temperature and exposure time, to the empirical measurements of mortality obtained in the laboratory under controlled conditions. Then, employing a numerical approximation to the analytical solution based on differential calculus, it combines this tolerance landscape with ambient temperature records in natural settings to predict the survival probability curve under these thermal conditions. These predictions were validated by contrasting predicted and observed mortality curves in 11 Drosophila species under three different warming rates, reported in the literature, which were virtually indistinguishable. Having validated the model, the study then examines how m...