Dataset and scripts from: Predicting temperature mortality and selection in natural Drosophila populations

The study develops and validates a theoretical model to predict thermal mortality under natural conditions, based on measurements of mortality performed in the laboratory at multiple constant temperatures. The theoretical model first fits a thermal tolerance landscape, which describes how survival probability is affected by both temperature and exposure time, to the empirical measurements of mortality obtained in the laboratory under controlled conditions. Then, employing a numerical approximation to the analytical solution based on differential calculus, it combines this tolerance landscape with ambient temperature records in natural settings to predict the survival probability curve under these thermal conditions. These predictions were validated by contrasting predicted and observed mortality curves in 11 Drosophila species under three different warming rates, reported in the literature, which were virtually indistinguishable. Having validated the model, the study then examines how m...本研究基于实验室中多恒定温度下的死亡率测量数据，构建并验证了可预测自然环境下热致死亡的理论模型。该理论模型首先将描述温度与暴露时长共同影响存活概率的热耐受景观（thermal tolerance landscape），拟合至实验室可控条件下获取的死亡率实测数据。随后，基于微分演算的解析解开展数值近似，将该热耐受景观与自然环境中的环境温度记录相结合，以预测此类热环境下的存活概率曲线。通过对比文献中报道的11种果蝇（Drosophila）在三种不同升温速率下的预测死亡率曲线与实测死亡率曲线，本研究验证了该模型的有效性，二者几乎无显著差异。在完成模型验证后，本研究进一步探讨了如何……