Droughts, Conflict, and the Importance of Democratic Legitimacy: Evidence from Pre-Industrial Europe

This
research shows that droughts are robustly associated with city-level unrest in
Europe over the years 900 to 1800 CE. This relationship is non-linear, with
disproportionately greater increases in the probability of a conflict among
droughts in the upper tail of the severity distribution. Elected city governments
are relatively immune from drought-induced conflict, while those based on
representation by burghers or guilds are not. These results suggest that local
governments are key for maintaining social stability during economic shocks,
and are most successful when they have a greater degree of democratic
legitimacy.