Data from: The effects of climate change on a mega-diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador.

Ecuador is one of 17 nations with the greatest diversity in the world, sheltering lowland and mountain regions that are considered global biodiversity hotspots. While these regions are projected to be highly impacted by climate change, it is not clear what would be the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of 8 species distribution models (SDM) to determine future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover of 201 mammals. Distributions were projected using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We also contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no-dispersal versus full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, current mammal diversity in Ecuador is expected to decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predict very important changes in the distribution of mammal diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas compared to other mammals. Our work supports that it is imperative for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to incorporate the impact of climate change.厄瓜多尔是全球生物多样性最丰富的17个国家之一，孕育着被视作全球生物多样性热点地区（biodiversity hotspots）的低地与山地区域。尽管这些区域预计将受到气候变化的严重冲击，但目前尚不明确其对动物区系多样性（faunal diversity）与保护工作将带来何种影响。为解决这一科学问题，本研究集成了8个物种分布模型（species distribution models, SDM），用于探究201种哺乳动物的未来分布偏移情况，并识别物种丰富度（species richness）与物种更替（species turnover）变化显著的区域。研究采用两种不同的气候变化情景（climate change scenarios），以2050年为预测时间节点开展分布投影，同时对比了两种极端扩散情景（dispersal scenarios）：无扩散与完全扩散。研究结果显示，全国范围内均出现了大范围的分布偏移现象。对于多数哺乳动物类群而言，无论采用何种气候变化情景与扩散假设，厄瓜多尔当前的哺乳动物多样性预计都将出现显著下降。北安第斯山脉与亚马逊区域仍将维持生物多样性热点地区的地位，但区域内的物种种数将出现明显减少。所有预测结果——即便考虑最为保守的扩散与气候变化情景——均表明，厄瓜多尔的哺乳动物多样性分布将发生极为显著的变化。灵长类（Primates）可能受影响最为严重，相较于其他哺乳动物，其适宜栖息地的面积将大幅缩减。本研究证实，厄瓜多尔在制定合理的保护策略时，必须将气候变化的影响纳入考量范畴。