Uncertainty/Probability: Office of Weather & Air Quality Uncertainty/Probability: Office of Weather & Air Quality: Bibliography

Due to the inherent and pivotal role of uncertainty and probability in weather forecasting, the NWS and OWAQ have invested heavily in research that examines the communication and impact of uncertainty and probabilistic forecasts. However, we a lack of a comprehensive overview that culminates these findings and provides an overall picture of the current state of knowledge of uncertainty and probability communication. In consultation with the NOAA Central Library, this project will provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of uncertainty and probability communication in the weather domain. Specifically, this project will synthesize the our knowledge regarding uncertainty and probability information in order to discern a)the current state of knowledge, and b)gaps in our understanding that may prioritize future NWS and OWAQ funding. Certain sections may include various weather hazard subsections. Short Term forecast may also include the following: daily forecast of high or low temperatures, daily forecast of rain chances, flash flooding, river flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, and snow and ice storms. Long term forecast may include in terms of monthly, seasonal, or yearly forecast.