Long-term trends in wild-capture and population dynamics point to an uncertain future for captive elephants.

Maintaining sustainable populations in captivity without supplementation through wild-capture is a major challenge in conservation that zoos and aquaria are working towards. However, the capture of wild animals continues for many purposes where conservation is not the primary focus. Wild-capture hinders long-term conservation goals by reducing remaining wild populations. Furthermore, the direct and long-term indirect consequences of wild-capture for captive population viability are rarely addressed using longitudinal data. We explored the implications of changes in wild-capture on population dynamics in captivity over 54 years using a multi-generational studbook of working Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Myanmar, the largest remaining captive elephant population. Here we show that population growth and birth rates declined between 1960 and 2014 with declines in wild-capture. Importantly, wild-caught females had reduced birth rates and higher mortality risk. However, despite the dis...在不依赖野外捕捉补充种群的前提下，维持圈养种群的可持续性是动物园与水族馆在物种保护工作中亟待攻克的重大难题。然而，当前仍有诸多不以保护为首要目标的野生动物野外捕捉行为持续存在。野外捕捉会缩减现存野生种群规模，进而阻碍长期保护目标的达成。此外，野外捕捉对圈养种群生存力产生的直接与长期间接影响，极少有研究通过纵向数据开展相关分析。本研究依托缅甸现存规模最大的圈养役用亚洲象（Elephas maximus）多代谱系册（studbook），剖析了54年间野外捕捉量变化对圈养种群动态的影响。研究结果表明，1960年至2014年间，随着野外捕捉量的下降，圈养种群的增长率与出生率均出现下滑。尤为重要的是，野外捕捉获得的雌性个体出生率更低，死亡风险更高。然而，尽管……