Transformational Change of Regional Landscapes: Navigating Planetary Limits and Resource Constraints Over the Next Five Decades

The project brought together a group of Australian researchers and managers with a broad range of expertise to identify current and emerging economies (‘drivers’) affecting regional agricultural landscapes and to suggest beneficial transformational changes for successful adaptation. A key challenge in these landscapes is altering how we use the land for ongoing, viable production while increasing native biodiversity. The group:

identified the major historical influences on Australian land use and the current social and economic drivers that are likely to increase in the future

assessed the condition of five agro-climatic regions (adapted from Williams et al., 2002 and Hobbs and McIntyre, 2005) using a Delphi method. A small (4-person) expert panel scored the impact of historical and future scenarios on ten sustainability indicators (biodiversity, water, soil, social capital, built capital, food/fibre, carbon, energy, minerals and cultural). Five regions were chosen: Southern Mediterranean, Northern tropical, Central arid, North-east subtropical, and South-east temperate. This was an iterative process whereby scores were revisited until internal consistency between regions, scenarios, and indicators was achieved

made projections of regional condition under the four global Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on van Vuuren et al. (2011)

developed recommendations about land use and management, institutional and policy arrangements and social processes that will assist adaptation towards a values-rich vision of Australia in 2100.

本项目汇聚了一批具备广泛专业知识的澳大利亚研究人员与管理者，旨在识别影响区域农业景观的当前及新兴经济驱动因子，并提出有益的转型变革方案以助力成功适应。此类农业景观面临的核心挑战在于，在提升本土生物多样性的同时，优化土地利用方式以实现持续且可行的生产。该工作组：
1. 明确了澳大利亚土地利用的主要历史影响因素，以及未来可能加剧的当前社会经济驱动因子；
2. 采用德尔菲法（Delphi method）对五个农业气候区域（改编自Williams等人2002年及Hobbs与McIntyre 2005年的研究）的现状开展评估。本次评估由一个4人小型专家小组，对历史及未来情景下10项可持续性指标（生物多样性、水资源、土壤、社会资本、建成资本、粮食/纤维、碳、能源、矿产及文化）的影响进行评分。选定的五个区域分别为：南地中海气候区、北部热带区、中部干旱区、东北部亚热带区以及东南部温带区。该评估为迭代式流程，需反复复核评分结果，直至区域、情景与指标间的内部一致性达标；
3. 基于van Vuuren等人2011年的研究成果，对四种全球典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways，RCPs）情景下的区域发展现状进行预测；
4. 提出了关于土地利用与管理、制度与政策安排以及社会进程的相关建议，以助力适应至2100年澳大利亚价值充盈的愿景。