The demography of nurses by 2030: a national and regional projection exercise

Scenarios have been used to test assumptions about the evolution of the national quota and the postponement of cessations of activity, in order to measure the impact of the statutory reform of employed nurses in the public hospital or of the pension reform on the evolution of the number of nurses.Several scenarios have been simulated: — the trend scenario is based on the assumption of constant behaviour, namely that the behaviours of nurses observed in a recent past and the measures of regulation of the public authorities would remain unchanged over the whole projection period;- the other scenarios, called variants, differ from the trend scenario only by a hypothesis — corresponding to the evolution of a behaviour or the introduction of a measure — which makes it possible to measure its own impact on the evolution of the workforce.本数据集采用情景分析法，用于检验有关国家护理配额演进与执业活动停办延后的相关假设，以量化公立医院在编护士法定改革或养老金改革对护士人数变化的影响。本次共模拟了多类情景：其一为趋势情景（trend scenario），其基于行为模式恒定的假设，即近期观测到的护士执业行为与公共主管部门的监管措施将在整个预测周期内保持不变；其余情景被称为变体情景（variants），仅在某一项假设条件上与趋势情景存在差异——该假设对应某类行为的演进或某项政策措施的引入，可单独测算其对护理人力规模变化的影响。