GroMoPo Metadata for Sfax region MODFLOW model

The water resources are exhausted by the increasing demand related to the population growth. They are also affected by climate circumstances, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. These areas are already undergoing noticeable shortages and low annual precipitation rate. This paper presents a numerical model of the Sfax shallow aquifer system that was developed by coupling the geographical information system tool ArcGIS 9.3 and ground water modeling system GMS6.5's interface, ground water flow modeling MODFLOW 2000. Being in coastal city and having an arid climate with high consumption rates, this aquifer is undergoing a hydraulic stress situation. Therefore, the groundwater piezometric variations were calibrated for the period 2003-2013 and simulated based on two scenarios; first the constant and growing consumption and second the rainfall forecast as a result of climate change scenario released by the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and the German International Cooperation Agency "GIZ" using HadCM3 as a general circulation model. The piezometric simulations globally forecast a decrease that is about 0.5 m in 2020 and 1 m in 2050 locally the decrease is more pronounced in "Chaffar" and "Djbeniana" regions and that is more evident for the increasing consumption scenario. The two scenarios announce a quantitative degradation of the groundwater by the year 2050 with an alarming marine intrusion in "Djbeniana" region. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

随着人口的持续增长，水资源需求不断增加，导致水资源枯竭。此外，气候条件，尤其是在干旱和半干旱地区，也对水资源造成了影响。这些地区已经出现了明显的短缺和低年降水量。本文提出了一种基于地理信息系统工具ArcGIS 9.3与地下水模型系统GMS6.5接口、地下水流动模型MODFLOW 2000耦合的Sfax浅层地下水系统数值模型。作为沿海城市，该含水层在干旱气候和高消耗率的影响下，正经历着水力应力状况。因此，对2003-2013年期间的地下水水位变化进行了校准，并基于两种情景进行了模拟；首先是持续增长的需求，其次是气候变化情景下的降雨预报，这一情景由突尼斯农业和水资源部以及德国国际合作机构“GIZ”发布，并采用HadCM3作为通用环流模型。全球水位模拟预测到2020年将下降约0.5米，到2050年将下降1米，而在局部地区，下降更为明显，尤其在“Chaffar”和“Djbeniana”地区，对于增加消耗的情景尤为显著。两种情景均预示到2050年地下水将出现数量级的退化，并在“Djbeniana”地区出现令人担忧的海水入侵。（C）2018 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。