A Five-year Trade Dependence Analysis of Forest Products Between Taiwan and China

In 2003, Mainland China occupied 15.73% of the total importation value of forest products in Taiwan, and became the 3rd largest source of imported forest products (IFP). Since 1990, the growth rates of IFP values from mainland China are increasing, and higher than that from the global market. It indicated the trend dependence is increasing. The growth rate of IFP values from mainland China has increased to 9.56% in 2003. Four major categories, which dominated the 93.19% of the IFP market share from mainland China, are ordered by the market share as following: wooden & rattan furniture (39.53%), veneer & plywood (20.82%), pulp (17.18%), and wooden & rattan products (15.66%). The trend of that market has shifted from raw materials to semi-products or finished products. Although the trend of trade dependence in imported forest products between Taiwan and mainland China is increasing in current few years, the value of trade dependence decreased sharply since 1998. The structural dependence explained the increasing of trade dependence between Taiwan and Mainland China before 1997, and no obvious reason was recognized the trade dependence increasing during 1998-2003. The research indicated the trend of trade dependence between Taiwan and mainland China has shifted from structural dependence to relative interest dependence.2003年，在台湾地区林产品总进口额中，中国大陆占比达15.73%，成为台湾地区第三大林产品进口来源地（Imported Forest Products，IFP）。自1990年起，台湾自中国大陆进口林产品的增长率持续攀升，且高于全球市场平均增速，表明两岸林产品贸易依赖趋势不断增强。2003年，台湾自中国大陆进口林产品的增长率已升至9.56%。占据中国大陆对台林产品进口市场93.19%份额的四大品类按市场占比从高到低依次为：木藤家具（39.53%）、单板与胶合板（20.82%）、纸浆（17.18%）以及木藤制品（15.66%）。该市场的贸易结构正从原材料向半制品及成品转型。尽管近年台湾与中国大陆的林产品进口贸易依赖度整体呈上升趋势，但自1998年起，贸易依赖度数值曾大幅下滑。1997年前，两岸林产品贸易依赖度的提升源于结构性依赖；而1998年至2003年间，贸易依赖度的上升未发现明确诱因。本研究表明，两岸林产品贸易依赖度已从结构性依赖转向相对利益依赖。