Institutional drivers of urban growth in the central Arizona-Phoenix area

The Institutional Drivers of Growth in Phoenix is currently ongoing. The purpose of the project is to understand how the complex mix of institutions, federal, state, and local, influence the pattern of growth in Phoenix. This year we focused on state trust land, specifically changing state trust land policy in Arizona and the west in general. We are approaching the state trust land sub-project by conducting qualitative research of policy archival documents. The assessment of state trust land referenda included a text and factor analysis of the policy dimensions. Additionally, the Institutional Drivers project has just begun to work in concert with �Socioecological Gradients and Land-Use Fragmentation: A Cross-Site Comparative Analysis.� The Institutional Drivers that we�ve gathered include annexation data, as well as preliminary assessment of growth management policy. In the American West, vast stocks of federally and state managed land and a relatively long history of self-governance and direct democracy unite to form heated public debates about use, management, and values. We investigate the nexus of these two threads of American politics, direct democracy and public land policies, through a qualitative study of ballot propositions on state trust land over the last century. A database of state trust land propositions was developed with forty-two propositions from fourteen states with over 90% from the West. Using word count as ideological placements we identified twenty-nine topics in the propositions. Text and principle component analysis reduced these to four dimensions of debate: 1) resource use procedures, 2) use of the fund, 3) management, and 4) investment. Additionally, we identified one issue that is receding in importance, resource extraction, while conservation and development concerns are emerging as new priorities. This study uses analysis of the policy language of ballot propositions to understand the political debates over state trust land over the past century.《凤凰城增长的制度驱动因素》（The Institutional Drivers of Growth in Phoenix）项目目前仍在进行中。本项目旨在探究联邦、州及地方等多层级复杂制度组合，如何影响凤凰城的增长格局。本年度我们聚焦于州信托土地（state trust land），尤其是亚利桑那州及全美西部的州信托土地政策变革。针对州信托土地子项目，我们通过对政策档案文献开展质性研究来推进工作。对州信托土地全民公投的评估工作，涵盖了政策维度的文本分析与因子分析。此外，本项目已启动与《社会生态梯度与土地利用碎片化：跨站点比较分析》（Socioecological Gradients and Land-Use Fragmentation: A Cross-Site Comparative Analysis）的协同合作。我们已收集的数据集涵盖辖区兼并数据，以及增长管理政策的初步评估结果。 在美国西部，联邦与州管辖的广袤土地存量，加之该地区相对悠久的自治与直接民主历史，共同催生了围绕土地使用、管理与价值取向的激烈公共辩论。我们通过对过去一个世纪州信托土地相关投票提案的质性研究，剖析美国政治中这两大脉络——直接民主与公共土地政策——的关联。我们构建了州信托土地投票提案数据库，涵盖14个州的42项提案，其中超90%来自西部各州。我们以词频作为意识形态倾向的衡量依据，从提案中识别出29个议题。通过文本分析与主成分分析，我们将这些议题归纳为四大辩论维度：1）资源使用流程；2）基金使用；3）管理模式；4）投资策略。此外，我们发现有一个议题的重要性正在下降：资源开采；而环境保护与开发议题则逐渐成为新的关注重点。本研究通过分析投票提案的政策文本，旨在解析过去一个世纪以来围绕州信托土地展开的政治辩论。