VIF2023 LGA Population Age Sex Projections to 2036

Victoria’s 79 municipalities plus unincorporated Victoria are listed as LGAs.\r\n\r\nVictoria in Future projections are an estimate of the future size, distribution and composition of the population. The projections give an idea of what is likely to happen if current trends continue. They are developed using mathematical models and expert knowledge, relying on trend analysis and assumptions about future change.\r\n\r\nVIF projections are an important guide for planning and building for our future. State and local governments and agencies use the projections to plan for land use and development, infrastructure, services and programs. Developers and businesses use them to analyse potential markets, for example future demands for dwellings, goods and services and labour supply.\r\n\r\nClause 11.02 of the State Planning Policy Framework explicitly requires planning for urban growth to have consideration to Victorian Government population projections.\r\n\r\nVIF2023 is not an exact prediction or forecast of the future. Uncertainty about the future increases over longer projection horizons and with smaller disaggregations, geographic or sectoral. Different policy settings and changes in the economy could result in changes to the expected size, distribution and characteristics of the population.

维多利亚州下辖的79个自治市及非建制区域均被纳入地方政府区域（Local Government Areas，LGAs）范畴。

维多利亚州未来人口预测（VIF）是对未来人口规模、空间分布与结构构成的估算。该预测可展现若当前发展趋势持续，人口演化的大致走向。其构建依托数学模型与专家学识，基于趋势分析及对未来变化的合理假设。

该预测是规划与建设未来的重要指引依据。州政府、地方政府及相关机构可借助其开展土地利用与开发、基础设施、公共服务及项目规划；开发商与企业则可利用其分析潜在市场，例如未来住宅、商品服务需求及劳动力供给情况。

《州规划政策框架》第11.02条明确规定，城市增长规划必须充分考量维多利亚州政府发布的人口预测数据。

VIF2023并非对未来的精准预判。随着预测时间跨度延长，以及地理或部门维度的数据细分程度提升，未来的不确定性会相应增加。不同的政策设定与经济变动，都可能导致人口预期规模、空间分布及特征发生改变。