Predicting future distributions of lanternfish; a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean

Aim: Lanternfish (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Southern Ocean lanternfish, and to relate these predicted responses to species traits. Location: Circumpolar, 35-75° S. Methods: We used MaxEnt ecological niche models to estimate the present and predict the future distributions of ten biomass-dominant lanternfish species throughout the region. Future conditions were simulated using eight climate models, in both stabilising (RCP 4.5) and rising (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios, for the time periods 2006-2055 and 2050-2099. Species responses were then related to their realised thermal niche (i.e. thermal tolerance range), latitudinal preference, and body size. Results: Despite large variation between climate model simulations, all but one speci...