Predicting future distributions of lanternfish; a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean

Aim: Lanternfish (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Southern Ocean lanternfish, and to relate these predicted responses to species traits. Location: Circumpolar, 35-75° S. Methods: We used MaxEnt ecological niche models to estimate the present and predict the future distributions of ten biomass-dominant lanternfish species throughout the region. Future conditions were simulated using eight climate models, in both stabilising (RCP 4.5) and rising (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios, for the time periods 2006-2055 and 2050-2099. Species responses were then related to their realised thermal niche (i.e. thermal tolerance range), latitudinal preference, and body size. Results: Despite large variation between climate model simulations, all but one speci...研究目的：灯笼鱼科（Myctophidae）是中上层硬骨鱼类中丰度最高、生态意义最为突出的类群之一，但目前学界对该类群物种如何响应气候变化仍不甚明确，极地海域的相关情况更是有待厘清。本研究旨在预测气候变化对南大洋灯笼鱼分布的影响，并将预测得到的物种响应与物种性状进行关联分析。 研究区域：环极分布区域，南纬35°至75°区间。 研究方法：本研究采用最大熵（MaxEnt）生态位模型，估算该区域内10种生物量优势灯笼鱼物种的当前分布，并预测其未来分布。未来气候情景通过8个气候模式进行模拟，涵盖稳定排放（RCP 4.5）与高强度排放（RCP 8.5）两种场景，时间跨度分别为2006-2055年及2050-2099年。随后将物种的响应特征与其实际热生态位（即热耐受范围）、纬度偏好以及体型大小进行关联分析。 研究结果：尽管不同气候模式的模拟结果存在较大差异，但除一个物种外，其余所有物种……