Predicted outcomes from land use change scenarios in upland Wales catchments

A spatial approach was developed to interpret qualitatively expressed scenarios, and predict the probability and amount of change for 10 land-cover types across 127 sub-catchments in upland Wales. Existing data, which have a temporal coverage of 1998-2007, were used for the underpinning mapping, and fed into the tabular land cover change summary data. For each scenario, the maximum and minimum land-cover change was projected using rules based on current land cover, agricultural land quality, ownership type, and nature conservation status. For each combination, total land-cover change summaries have been created, which indicate how land cover within the 127 sub-catchments may respond to change in the future. This work was part of the Diversity in Upland River Ecosystem Service Sustainability (DURESS) project, NERC grant NE/J014826/1. Full details about this dataset can be found at https://doi.org/10.5285/0dd30cc6-d4fb-42f5-a5a4-954cf01a230b本研究开发了一种空间分析方法，用于解读定性表述的情景，并对威尔士高地127个子流域（sub-catchments）内10种土地覆被（land-cover）类型的变化概率与变化量进行预测。本研究采用时间覆盖范围为1998-2007年的现有数据开展基础制图，并将其导入至表格化土地覆被变化汇总数据中。针对每一类情景，研究基于当前土地覆被、农用地质量、土地所有权类型以及自然保护地现状制定规则，以此预测土地覆被变化的最大值与最小值。针对每一类组合，本研究已生成土地覆被变化总汇总数据，用以展示127个子流域内的土地覆被对未来变化的潜在响应方式。本研究为「高地河流生态系统服务可持续性多样性（Diversity in Upland River Ecosystem Service Sustainability, DURESS）」项目的组成部分，受英国自然环境研究理事会（Natural Environment Research Council, NERC）资助，资助号为NE/J014826/1。本数据集的完整详情可通过以下链接获取：https://doi.org/10.5285/0dd30cc6-d4fb-42f5-a5a4-954cf01a230b