Tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains (1608–2021)

Understanding historical droughts in northern China is challenging due to the limited time records of meteorological stations. In this study, we reconstructed the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains over 414 years by using the tree‐ring width of Pinus tabulaeformis. Based on our climate response analysis, Pinus tabulaeformis growth at the sampling sites was mainly restricted by the total precipitation from August of the previous year to June of the current year (P8‐C6), which was used as the dependent variable for precipitation reconstruction. Spatial analysis demonstrated that the reconstructed precipitation contained obvious spatial representativeness in the Taihang Mountains. We compared the precipitation sequence with other dryness/wetness sequences around the study area, revealing common drought events in most of northern China. Furthermore, the multi-taper method (MTM) demonstrated a significant period of 2–4 years of the reconstructed precipitation. The precipitation variability in the Taihang Mountains may be influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and has exhibited a negative correlation in recent decades. This study has reconstructed the historical changes in wet and dry conditions to offer a reference for the utilization of modern water resources, especially by linking the decrease in precipitation in the study area with the downfall of the Ming Dynasty.由于气象站观测记录的时间序列有限，厘清中国北方历史干旱事件的特征颇具挑战。本研究利用油松（Pinus tabulaeformis）的树轮宽度，重建了太行山中段地区过去414年的降水变化序列。通过气候响应分析可知，采样点处油松的生长主要受前一年8月至当年6月的总降水量（记为P8-C6）限制，该降水序列被用作降水重建的因变量。空间分析结果表明，重建的降水序列在太行山区具有显著的空间代表性。本研究将该降水序列与研究区周边其他干湿序列进行对比，揭示了中国北方多数区域共有的典型干旱事件。进一步通过多锥度法（Multi-taper Method, MTM）分析，发现重建的降水序列存在显著的2~4年周期信号。太行山区的降水变化可能受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO）、太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO）以及大西洋多年代际变率（Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, AMV）的调控，且近数十年来呈现负相关关系。本研究重建的区域干湿历史变化，可为现代水资源开发利用提供科学参考，尤其可将研究区降水减少与明朝灭亡建立关联。