Replication Data and Online Appendix for: Environmental Protection After Civil War: A Difference-in-geographic-discontinuity Approach

Although civil war devastates the environment, we still do not understand the role of environmental policies in post-war countries and often have a pessimistic view without empirical evidence. This study challenges this view by arguing that the introduction of independent monitoring mechanisms can make environmental regulations effective even in post-war countries, and also by exploiting analytical opportunities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In 2011–2013, the government implemented independent monitoring mechanisms to lessen the side effects of mining activities on deforestation. The reform, however, only applied to mining permit zones, which had arbitrary grid-based shapes. This allows combining a geographic regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences to a difference-in-geographic-discontinuity (DiGD) design. With satellite-based data available at every 30 meters for over 40 million cells in the DRC, the analysis indicates that the 2011–2013 reform decreased deforestation rates immediately inside the mining permits. The effect existed even in the areas of continuing armed conflicts. Further analysis of causal mechanisms suggests that the 2011-2013 reform facilitated the compliance of existing operators and also screened out incompliant operators. Overall, these findings imply that the environmental effects of civil war can depend on post-war policies—a missing link in the literature on environmental security.尽管内战会对环境造成严重破坏，但学界目前仍未明晰战后国家环境政策的作用机制，且常因缺乏实证支撑而持悲观态度。本研究对此观点提出挑战，主张即便在战后国家，引入独立监督机制亦可保障环境监管的有效性，并依托刚果民主共和国（Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC）的研究场景展开实证分析。2011至2013年间，该国政府推出独立监督机制，以缓解采矿活动对森林砍伐的负面影响。但此次改革仅覆盖采用任意网格形态划定的采矿许可区域，这一限定使得本研究可将地理断点回归（geographic regression discontinuity）与双重差分法（difference-in-differences）相结合，构建地理断点双重差分法（difference-in-geographic-discontinuity, DiGD）研究设计。研究依托刚果民主共和国境内超过4000万个30米分辨率的卫星网格数据开展分析，结果显示2011至2013年的改革使采矿许可区域内的森林砍伐率立即下降，该减排效应甚至在持续发生武装冲突的区域依然存在。进一步的因果机制分析表明，此次改革既推动了现有采矿经营者的合规行为，也筛选出并淘汰了不合规经营者。综上，本研究结论暗示，内战对环境的影响或取决于战后政策的实施——这正是环境安全研究领域现有文献中缺失的关键环节。