Methodology for Developing the PAP Economic News Index to Track GDP Growth in Poland: 1995-2019

The objective of this research is to develop a high-frequency index, referred to as the PAP (Polska Agencja Prasowa) economic news index, which closely correlates with the quarterly year-on-year GDP growth in Poland. This index aims to enhance the accuracy of nowcasts and forecasts for Polish GDP. Accurate GDP prediction is valuable for fund managers to optimize asset allocation and for companies to improve the planning of their investment strategies. Files: 1. Methodology description: PAP_economic_news_index_methodology.docx 2. PAP Economic News Index: pap_eco_sel_llm_and_numerical_ratings.csv 3. Polish GDP: POL_GDP_Fred.csv