Changes in vegetation cover of the Pantanal wetland detected by Vegetation Index: a strategy for conservation

The Brazilian Pantanal wetland undergoes landscape alterations that can cause impacts on hydrological processes, changing the flood pulse. The objective of this work is to analyse the vegetation cover of the Pantanal in the period of 2000, 2008 and 2015, and to make a projection for 2030. Therefore, NDVI from the sensor MODIS was analysed and the transition matrix was calculated by the DINAMICA EGO. The methods adopted were open sources. The results were worrisome, indicating alterations of the vegetation cover of the Pantanal, with an increase of short vegetation (grasslands or pastures) in the evaluated period. The projection pointed out that in 2030 the Brazilian Pantanal wetland area will be covered by 78% of short vegetation and only 14% of dense (arboreal-shrubby) vegetation. The approach can be a useful tool for conservation of the Brazilian Pantanal wetland.巴西潘塔纳尔湿地（Brazilian Pantanal wetland）会发生景观改变，这类改变会对水文过程产生影响，进而改变洪水脉冲（flood pulse）。本研究旨在分析2000年、2008年与2015年三个时段的潘塔纳尔湿地植被覆盖情况，并对2030年的植被覆盖格局进行预测。因此，本研究采用MODIS传感器获取的归一化差分植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index，NDVI）数据开展分析，并通过DINAMICA EGO软件计算转移矩阵。本研究所采用的方法均为开源方法。研究结果令人担忧，表明潘塔纳尔湿地的植被覆盖已发生改变：在评估周期内，低矮植被（草原或牧场）的占比显著提升。预测结果显示，到2030年，巴西潘塔纳尔湿地将有78%的区域被低矮植被覆盖，仅14%的区域为茂密乔灌植被（arboreal-shrubby vegetation）。该研究方法可为巴西潘塔纳尔湿地的保护工作提供有效辅助工具。