Sustainability pathways enable China's marine economic sectors to reach a 2030 emissions peak

This dataset contains provincial-level data for China’s coastal provinces (2000–2020) and probabilistic projections (2020–2040) used to produce the analyses and figures in the associated manuscript. The files include: (1) greenhouse-gas emissions by sector and province for five marine sectors (maritime transportation; marine capture fishery; marine aquaculture; offshore oil and gas production; ocean renewables) for 2000–2020; (2) Tapio decoupling indices (emissions vs marine economic output) for China and coastal provinces (2000–2020); (3) LMDI decomposition results (contributions of emission intensity, energy consumption intensity, employment ratio, labor productivity, population) for 2000–2020; and (4) probabilistic scenario trajectories (2020–2040) under three pathways (sustainability, middle-of-the-road, fossil-fuelled development), including central estimates and uncertainty intervals.