Report: SANParks Global Environmental Change Project: Climate Change Summary Report

Background: Protected areas, and the biodiversity found within them, are both likely to be significantly impacted by climate change as well as play an important role in promoting ecosystembased adaptation to climate change. The first phase of this project conducted (1) an analysis of past trends to provide evidence of change that has already taken place and to quantify patterns of climate change in each park; and (2) an analysis of likely future change under three scenarios (best, intermediate and worst case). In the next phase of the project these results will be used to assess park vulnerability and likely impacts of climate change in parks, and to use the outcomes to formulate policy and management recommendations.

Methods: An analysis of trends in weather patterns was conducted for all nineteen national parks where sufficient data were available. The longest available data series were obtained from the South African Weather Service for sixty-four weather stations within and adjacent to each park. Summary graphs of the change in seasonal average temperature and precipitation based on the available historical data (1900-2009 for rainfall and 1960-2009) were compiled. Summaries were also compiled for each of three future (2050) scenarios, i.e. low, moderate and high risk scenarios. Biome climate envelope shifts and areas of climate envelope stability and/or change under a range of climate scenarios were modelled using statistically downscaled future climate scenarios.

Major findings: Significant temperature increases have already been observed in most parks, and projected climate scenarios universally support ongoing temperature increases over the projected period of the next four decades. Rainfall patterns are far more variable and projected rainfall trends similarly uncertain, although under the intermediate scenario most parks are expected to experience a minor reduction in rainfall. Mokala was the only park where a rainfall increase was detected in the historical data and one of only two parks (along with Mountain Zebra) where both the low risk and the intermediate risk scenarios show an increase in rainfall (albeit vey small for intermediate). Several parks showed a drying trend over the last 100 years, which was also associated with longer dry spells. Short time series, poor quality data and lack of data in some parks and for some climate variables mean that patterns and trends in some parks are unknown. The Savanna biome was predicted to be the most stable under changing climates, while the Grassland biome was the most vulnerable, although Golden Gate (which is the only park in this biome) is predicted to remain stable and wont lose its grassland area. Parks in the Nama Karoo however are expected to change considerably.

Monitoring, management and policy implications: Management and policy implications will be dealt with in Phase II of the project, but the monitoring implications of these outcomes strongly support increased and ongoing investment in weather monitoring, weather data archiving and analysis by SANParks. Historical weather data in parks is particularly valuable as it provides biologically relevant measures of climate change such as changes in temperature and rainfall extremes and changes in seasonality, as well as support for short-medium term management decisions.