PalaeoQUMP (Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System - Using Palaeodata to Quantify Uncertainties in Model Prediction): Global Charcoal Database

PalaeoQUMP was headed by Prof Sandy Harrison of the University of Bristol, with co-investigators at the University of Southampton and Durham University, as part of QUEST (Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System). This dataset collection contains data from charcoal records that have been compiled for the Mediterranean, Black Sea-Caspian and Sea corridor region. PalaeoQUMP aimed to constrain climate sensitivity by using a wider range of derived climate observations from the geological past (reconstructions from sediments and geomorphological changes for the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period), to evaluate climate model predictions generated using the same series of simulations as QUMP produced for the modern climate. The mid-Holocene and LGM climate reconstructions have been completed, with input from the PMIP Quantitative Reconstruction working group. Robust patterns evident in the data sets are being used as benchmarks and targets for the IPCC AR5 palaeoclimate simulations. The team has also produced the first coupled model (AOGCM) perturbed physics ensemble simulations of the MH and LGM. However the objective of using this data for an improved understanding of past climate to better constrain climate sensitivity has not yet been fully achieved.PalaeoQUMP项目由布里斯托大学桑迪·哈里森（Sandy Harrison）教授领衔，联合南安普顿大学与杜伦大学的共同研究者开展，作为QUEST（量化与理解地球系统，Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System）计划的组成部分。 本数据集合集收录了针对地中海、黑海-里海海域走廊区域整理编制的炭屑记录数据。 PalaeoQUMP的研究目标为：通过采用覆盖更广泛范围的地质历史时期衍生气候观测数据（即针对末次冰盛期（Last Glacial Maximum，LGM）与中全新世（mid-Holocene，MH）的沉积物重建与地貌变化数据），约束气候敏感性，以此评估与QUMP针对现代气候所开展的系列模拟一致的气候模型预测结果。该团队在古气候模拟比较计划（PMIP）定量重建工作组的参与下，已完成中全新世与末次冰盛期的气候重建工作。数据集中显现的可靠模式，正被用作IPCC第五次评估报告（IPCC AR5）古气候模拟的基准与目标参数。研究团队还完成了首个基于大气海洋耦合环流模式（AOGCM，Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model）的中全新世与末次冰盛期扰动物理集合模拟试验。然而，通过利用该数据集增进对古气候的理解以进一步约束气候敏感性的研究目标，尚未完全达成。