Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and...阐明人畜共患病病原体（zoonotic pathogens）在其储存宿主种群中的动态变化规律，是预测并防控人类疾病流行的先决条件。普马拉汉坦病毒（Puumala hantavirus, PUUV）对人类的感染风险在北欧地区最高，其啮齿类宿主棕背䶄（Myodes glareolus）的种群存在周期性数量波动。本研究开展了为期7年的标记重捕（capture-mark-recapture）研究，对呈现3年密度周期的棕背䶄种群中PUUV感染率的季节及多年动态模式进行监测。在宿主密度上升或达到峰值的年份，感染PUUV的棕背䶄个体数量在隆冬月份最为丰富。棕背䶄的PUUV感染流行率呈现规律的季节性特征，这一特征反映了种群的年度更新以及每一年龄同龄群内感染病例的累积情况。秋季时节，PUUV的传播速率随宿主种群丰度的升高而增加，提示该病毒的传播存在密度依赖性。然而，PUUV感染流行率在密度上升期与……