GEOPOLITICAL SHOCKS, CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS, AND REMITTANCE RESILIENCE: EVIDENCE FROM POST-SOVIET MIGRATION CORRIDORS

This paper investigates the counter-intuitive resilience of cross-border labor remittance corridors in the post-Soviet space following major geopolitical shocks. Focusing primarily on the Russia–Uzbekistan corridor, we analyze how severe international sanctions, high ruble volatility, and shifts in migration dynamics altered remittance behaviors. Contrary to early institutional forecasts predicting a sharp structural collapse, empirical data shows that remittance flows exhibited significant surges. According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, cross-border inflows reached $14.8 billion in 2024 and experienced a historic 27.2% surge to $18.9 billion in 2025. This phenomenon is driven by structural labor shortages in the host country, rapid FinTech-led formalization of financial channels, and altered currency arbitrage mechanics. Finally, we evaluate microeconomic household income metrics from the Statistics Agency and outline targeted policy recommendations for the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. [3, 4]