Data for: Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness

Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in s..., ,气候模型与实证观测均表明，人为气候变化正导致极端气候事件（Extreme Climatic Events）的发生频次与强度发生改变。平均气候改变对动植物种群的物候、移动及种群统计特征的影响已有大量文献记载。与之相对，探究极端气候事件对自然种群影响的研究则相对较少，这至少部分源于这类罕见事件难以获取足够研究数据的困境。本研究基于1965年至2020年这56年间牛津近郊大山雀（Great Tits）的长期监测数据，评估了极端气候事件格局改变所带来的影响。我们发现温度型极端气候事件的频次发生了显著变化：1960年代的冷型极端气候事件发生频次是当前的2倍，而2010至2020年间的热型极端气候事件发生频次则是1960年代的约3倍。尽管单次极端气候事件的影响通常较为微弱，但我们的研究表明，种群暴露于极端气候事件的频次增加往往会降低繁殖产出，且在 s..., ,