Data from: Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans

There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal data sets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by utilising data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus, infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterised localised spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density – pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures.尽管野生动物疾病暴发对生物多样性与人类健康造成广泛影响，但针对其暴发过程的重建研究仍寥寥无几。这一现状在很大程度上可归因于结构化且稳健的时空数据集（spatio-temporal data sets）的缺失。我们通过利用某公民科学项目（citizen science project）的数据，针对一种感染两栖动物的蛙病毒属（Ranavirus）病原的传播构建了时空传播模型，从而克服了获取合适研究资料的实操障碍。我们针对英国境内疾病报告数量快速增长的现象评估了三项核心假说：其一为疫情暴发的报告频率有所提升；其二为气候变化改变了宿主与此前广泛流行的病原之间的互作关系；其三为疾病暴发源于新型病原的空间扩散。我们的分析结果显示，病原存在从邻近池塘局部扩散的特征，这与两栖动物的扩散规律相符；但同时也发现，在人口密度更高的地区，额外暴发疫情的比例呈现出极为显著的上升趋势——这表明人类活动同样参与了病毒的传播。对病原基因组的系统发育分析（phylogenetic analyses）支持了“至少有两次独立的病原传入英国”这一推论。综合上述结果，有力地表明人类反复从其他国家向英国输入蛙病毒，且在英国境内的池塘之间也存在病毒转移，因此本研究可为相关防控措施的制定提供参考依据。