Supplementary material for "Species distribution modelling of selected invasive invertebrate species in South Africa"

The manuscript presents a comprehensive climate-based assessment of both the current and future distributional potential of 30 invasive invertebrate taxa in South Africa, with direct relevance to biosecurity planning, invasion risk assessment, and climate‑informed management. Biological invasions and climate change are increasingly interacting drivers of ecological change in South Africa, amplifying risks to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and socio‑economic stability. Our study addresses this interface by applying presence‑only species distribution modelling using MaxEnt (v3.4.4) to evaluate climatic suitability under present conditions and projected mid‑century climates (CMIP6, SSP2‑4.5; EC‑Earth3‑Veg). Model calibration drew on GBIF occurrence records and six ecologically relevant bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO3, BIO4, BIO12, BIO13, BIO15). Rigorous model evaluation was undertaken using withheld test data, AUC metrics, omission rates, and response curves. Across taxa, precipitation seasonality (BIO15) consistently emerged as the strongest predictor of climatic suitability, underscoring rainfall variability as a key ecological filter shaping invertebrate invasion potential. Spatial projections revealed a coherent geographic pattern comprising north‑eastern expansion, eastern interior persistence, and western contraction. These patterns highlight: Emerging invasion hotspots in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, and the northern Free State; Persistent suitability in Gauteng, inland KwaZulu‑Natal, and parts of the Eastern Cape, and Declining suitability across increasingly arid western regions.