Louis Jacobson's State Legislative Election Ratings (2002-2020)

These are election handicapper Louis Jacobson's ratings for state legislative elections for the election cycles from 2002 through 2020. Jacobson rated each state legislative chamber per election year with one of the following labels depending on its perceived electoral competitiveness in that cycle (the 1-7 numeric scores were added by Klarner for ease of data analysis): Safe Republican (1), Likely Republican (2), Lean Republican (3), Toss-up (4), Lean Democratic (5), Likely Democratic (6), Safe Democratic (7). Jacobson determined the competitiveness of each legislative chamber after conducting interviews with national and state level sources, including academics, pollsters, and partisans. The sources remained anonymous in order to speak freely. Jacobson often rated chambers multiple times in one cycle, with the new ratings noting shifts in competitiveness within a cycle. The spreadsheet lists the date for each rating so readers can see if a chamber's perceived competitiveness shifted over the course of an election cycle. These ratings were published by the following outlets: The Cook Political Report (2002; 2020), The Rothenberg Political Report (now called Inside Elections) (2004; 2006), Stateline.org (2008), Governing (2010-2018).本数据集收录了选举评级分析师路易·雅各布森（Louis Jacobson）针对2002至2020年各选举周期的州议会选举所出具的评级结果。雅各布森会依据该选举周期内各州议会各议院的预期选举竞争力，在每一个选举年度为其赋予以下标签之一（为便于数据分析，克拉纳（Klarner）补充了1至7的数值评分）：安全共和党（1）、倾向共和党（2）、偏倚共和党（3）、势均力敌（4）、偏倚民主党（5）、倾向民主党（6）、安全民主党（7）。雅各布森通过采访全国及州级消息来源（涵盖学者、民调专家与党派人士）来判定各议院的竞争激烈程度。为保障消息人士能够自由发言，所有受访对象均做匿名处理。雅各布森在单个选举周期内常会多次对议院进行评级，新评级会标注该周期内竞争格局的变动情况。本电子表格列明了每一次评级的日期，以便读者追踪某州议会各议院的预期竞争激烈程度在选举周期内的变化。上述评级曾由以下媒体发布：《库克政治报告》（The Cook Political Report，2002年、2020年）、罗滕伯格政治报告（现更名为《内部选举》（Inside Elections），2004年、2006年）、Stateline.org（2008年）以及《治理》（Governing，2010-2018年）。