VIF2023 One Page Profile

Victoria in Future 2023 data is available in one-page profiles for individual regions providing the highlights of population and household change. Victoria in Future projections are an estimate of the future size, distribution and composition of the population. The projections give an idea of what is likely to happen if current trends continue. They are developed using mathematical models and expert knowledge, relying on trend analysis and assumptions about future change.VIF projections are an important guide for planning and building for our future. State and local governments and agencies use the projections to plan for land use and development, infrastructure, services and programs. Developers and businesses use them to analyse potential markets, for example future demands for dwellings, goods and services and labour supply.Clause 11.02 of the State Planning Policy Framework explicitly requires planning for urban growth to have consideration to Victorian Government population projections.VIF2023 is not an exact prediction or forecast of the future. Uncertainty about the future increases over longer projection horizons and with smaller disaggregations, geographic or sectoral. Different policy settings and changes in the economy could result in changes to the expected size, distribution and characteristics of the population.

《2023年未来维多利亚》（Victoria in Future 2023）数据集以单页概况形式呈现各区域人口与家庭变化的核心要点。《未来维多利亚》（Victoria in Future）系列预测是对未来人口规模、分布与结构的估算，可展现若当前趋势持续时，未来人口发展的大致走向。该类预测依托数学模型与专业知识，结合趋势分析及对未来变化的预设假设生成。VIF（Victoria in Future）预测是规划与未来建设的重要参考依据：州级与地方政府及其职能机构会借助此类预测开展土地利用与开发、基础设施、公共服务及相关项目规划；开发商与企业则利用该预测分析潜在市场，例如未来住宅、商品服务需求及劳动力供给情况。《州规划政策框架》第11.02条明确要求，城市增长规划需参考维多利亚州政府的人口预测数据。VIF2023（Victoria in Future 2023）并非对未来的精准预判。随着预测周期延长，以及地理或行业维度的细分粒度变细，未来的不确定性会随之提升。不同的政策设定与经济变化均可能导致人口规模、分布及特征偏离预期。