Data from: From welcome culture to welcome limits? Uncovering preference changes over time for sheltering refugees in Germany

Europe recently experienced a large influx of refugees, spurring much public debate about the admission and integration of refugees and migrants into society. Previous research based on cross-sectional data found that European citizens generally favour asylum seekers with high employability, severe vulnerabilities, and Christians over Muslims. These preferences and attitudes were found to be homogeneous across countries and socio-demographic groups. Here, we do not study the general acceptance of asylum seekers, but the acceptance of refugee and migrant homes in citizens’ vicinity and how it changes over time. Based on a repeated stated choice experiment on preferences for refugee and migrant homes, we show that the initially promoted “welcome culture” towards refugees in Germany was not reflected in the views of a majority of a sample of German citizens who rather disapproved refugee homes in their vicinity. Their preferences have not changed between November 2015, the peak of “welcome culture,” and November 2016, after political debates, media reporting and public discourse had shifted towards limiting admission of immigrants. A minority of one fifth of the sample population, who were initially rather approving of refugee and migrant homes being established in their vicinity, were more likely to change their preferences towards a rather disapproving position in 2016. Experience of contact with refugees and migrants, higher education, and general pro-immigration attitudes explain acceptance of refugee and migrant homes as well as preference stability over time. Country of origin and religion of refugees and migrants are considered less important than decent housing conditions and whether refugee and migrants arrive as families or single persons. In this respect our results highlight the importance of humanitarian aspects of sheltering and integration of refugees and other migrants into society.近期欧洲遭遇了大规模难民涌入潮，引发了围绕难民与移民接纳及社会融入的广泛公共辩论。既往基于横截面数据（cross-sectional data）的研究显示，欧洲民众普遍更青睐就业能力强、处境极度脆弱的寻求庇护者（asylum seekers），以及基督教难民，而非穆斯林难民。此类偏好与态度在不同国家及社会人口学群体（socio-demographic groups）中均呈现同质化特征。本文并未探讨民众对寻求庇护者的整体接纳度，而是聚焦公民居住地周边的难民与移民安置点（refugee and migrant homes）接纳意愿，及其随时间的变化趋势。依托针对难民与移民安置点偏好的重复型陈述选择实验（repeated stated choice experiment），本文研究发现，德国境内曾一度大力倡导的针对难民的“欢迎文化”，并未体现在多数受访德国公民的态度中——他们普遍反对在自家附近设立难民与移民安置点。2015年11月是“欢迎文化”的巅峰期，而在2016年11月——彼时政治辩论、媒体报道与公共舆论已转向限制移民入境——多数受访者的偏好并未发生改变。在受访群体中占比五分之一的少数群体，最初倾向于支持在自家附近设立难民与移民安置点，而在2016年，这群人更有可能将偏好转向反对立场。与难民及移民的接触经历、高等教育背景，以及整体支持移民的态度，均可解释民众对难民与移民安置点的接纳度，以及其偏好随时间的稳定性。相较于体面的居住条件，以及难民与移民是以家庭还是个人身份入境，难民与移民的原籍国及宗教信仰对民众接纳度的影响相对较弱。就此而言，本研究结果凸显了为难民及其他移民提供庇护并推动其社会融入的人道主义层面的重要性。