Excess mortality in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria estimated by community-based survey sampling

By December 2017, the official death toll in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria was set at 64 excess deaths. To verify the validity of this death count, a study by Kishore et al used a community-based survey sampling method to compute an empirical measurement of the death count. The study sampled from approximately 3000 households, then compared the estimated deaths with the vital statistics data from 2016 through the end of December 2017. The study method estimated 4645 excess deaths with a 95% confidence interval from 793 to 8498 potential excess deaths. These estimated excess mortality shows a markedly high estimate with a wide confidence interval, but despite these issues the estimates do indicate that the official death tool is a significantly underestimate of the realistic excess deaths in the population.

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Kishore N, Marqués D, Mahmud A, Kiang MV, Rodriguez I, Fuller A, Ebner P, Sorensen C, Racy F, Lemery J, Maas L. Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. New England journal of medicine. 2018 Jul 12;379(2):162-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972